|
|
|
|
Forum...My Say
Feedback/Reply from/to Fellow Economists,
Professionals, Friends
>> page
1
2
3... |
|
|
| |
|
Re: 13
Nov 2006: My Say: How psychological is
the 1,000 mark? |
isa muhamad |
|
|
More
options |
20-Nov
(9 hours ago) |
|
|
|
Assalamua'alaikum & SHR,
You are a more
full-pledged stock guy
than I thought. It's a
very professional view
and judgement.
Again, as I mentioned
before, there's
unlimited options in
making money and
diversifying investment
is one.
Spare a thought for land
banking as an option.
Riding on solid Canadian
economy, no reason to
develop ulcers over
fluctuations and swings
of political sentiments,
knowing that the
investment will
definitely yield
substantial income.
No, not hard selling but
sharing a thought.
Best regards
Muhamad Isa
Walton International
012-2540813
|
|
|
|
|
Re: 13
Nov 2006: My Say: How psychological is
the 1,000 mark? |
Arifin Latif
|
|
|
More
options
|
16-Nov
(3 days ago) |
|
|
|
dear
bro!,
t/kasih
for the nice words...
buat kerje utk eastern
corridor? that's nice.
anything i can assist?
btw, is it the same
project dato'
kadir is involved in?
lama tak
jumpe mokhtar (he's my
teacher on the stock
market) - ada emel tak
(by any chance?). as for
the stock market here's
my latest off-the-cuff
commentary as posted on
global malaysian
network.....just click
on this link:
thanks for the keen
interest (even though
for merely an
intellectual
discourse...).
please
keep in touch brader.
wassalaam.
arifin
aka ayah pin
|
|
|
|
|
Re: 13
Nov 2006: My Say: How psychological is
the 1,000 mark? |
|
Arifin Latif
|
|
|
More
options
|
16-Nov
(3 days ago) |
|
|
|
dear doc,
here's my
off-the-cuff reply to
your question on what's
next....just click on
this link:
thanks for the keen
interest (even though
for merely an
intellectual
discourse...)
arifin
|
|
|
|
|
Re: 13
Nov 2006: My Say: How psychological is
the 1,000 mark? |
|
Dato' Dr. Hashim
|
|
|
More
options
|
16-Nov
(3 days ago) |
|
|
|
sdr.ariffin
thanks, congratulation for
making such an accurate
prognosis as it did on
4.nov.2006. what's next? how
such a psychological impetus
will add to the sentiments
of investors... as an
economist my contention is
more "soft factors " rather
than pure technical.. soft
factors are expectations,
predictions are moved by
what actions we perceive on
the ground.. we have large
indivisible projects on the
ground..RMK9 800+.growth in
economy yes GDP 5.5 %+, "ntv
7 feel good regime".. but
what's hard facts, 2nd PP
bridge 60% local content,
South Johore, construction
push, asset pushing, east
coast Trengganu-Kelantan
(your goodself state) also
another hub, which call for
massive public fund.. PFI...look
at the companies in
line...all khazanah propel
participation.. these are
companies that are supposed
to be the moderator or
anchor of growth for malays
participation.. the "roti
canai" is enlarging.. or may
be get soaked by too many
kuah..i don't know.. "wealth
creation" factors, we need
to keep our figures
cross.. see what happen to
privatization, i was there,
people forget the equity
factor and "soft factors"
accountability,
transparency, etc people
get carried away on wealth
creation, see the impact on
malays.. equity drop 18.6%
on start of 9th plan... we malays must think more, run
faster than anyone at all
time, stop expectation
handouts.. malays have too
many styles, but less
original.. you may want to go
back to 2nd malaysia plan,
where all the issues we have
now begins..
dr. hashim hassan
|
|
|
|
|
Re: 13
Nov 2006: My Say: How psychological is
the 1,000 mark? |
|
Salleh Haron |
|
|
More
options
|
15-Nov
(4 days ago) |
|
|
|
Thanks for
the article. Am doing some
work for petronas on the
eastern Region. Met Mokhtar
Lazim rayaing in Farooq's
House. He must have
predicted wrong along the
line. What say you? Thanks
for the Raya ecard the
family looks fine. Best
wishes & regards to the
missus and children.
arifinlatif@gmail.com
wrote:
arifinlatif@gmail.com
comments on this article:
dear bro/sis,
for ur reading pleasure.
comments are welcomed.
tq/tk.
arifin latif
---------------------------
13 Nov
2006: My Say: How
psychological is the 1,000
mark?
By Arifin Abdul Latif
03:00PM (14-11-2006)
I first read about the
Kuala Lumpur Composite
Index (KLCI) crossing
the magical 1,000 mark
while having teh tarik
on Nov 4. I did not
realise it had happened
although I had entered
the market to buy some
stocks, based purely on
my reading of its state,
which is "rosy for now".
As a chartist, I did
make a forecast on Sept
6 this year on the
"1,000 mark" in response
to queries over Global
Malaysian Network (GMN)
via a thread I initiated
under "Global Malaysians
Forum: Business and
Professional Networking
(topic: Forecasting
Economic/Stock Market
Trends)". This thread is
easily accessible at
www.globalmalaysians.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=260&PN=1.
This is what I said
then: "Guys, the elusive
1,000 mark? Let me look
into my crystal ball for
a second? not so soon,
but watch out for as
'early' as Oct 30, 2006,
most likely by Nov 17,
2006, or latest Jan 23,
2007. This is purely my
prognosis from my
charts.... you can
believe it or not, but
just be alert. That's my
advice."
As a rejoinder to that
statement, here's what I
posted on the GMN Forum
on Nov 4, 2006: "In
fact, I have made a
somewhat 'pinpoint
forecast' there... I
have said that the
earliest KLCI may touch
1,000 is by Oct 30,
2006... it seems I have
missed by a few days
there. But on second
look, I made a small
mistake in counting the
days... I forgot about
the DeepaRaya holidays
(you see, American
charting software does
not take care of
Malaysian holidays). Add
on three or four days
and hey presto! the
1,000 level as forecast
was indeed (reached) on
Nov 2 or 3. Well, I'm a
bit of a Nostradamus
now, I guess. What
happens after this
'first attempt' at
penetration (over 1,000)
is another matter."
The point here is, not
many analysts dare to
make such a bold
forecast and stick with
it. Over the past few
days, we have seen the
positive newspaper
headlines and
stockbrokers painting
rosy pictures in the
print media and online.
And they will not stop
at that. The chances are
there will be more
bullish commentaries.
Well, I don't blame
them. It's what market
players are looking (and
hoping) for.
I'll not attempt to
repeat what the others
are saying now. The
fundamentals are out
there for all to see ?
there is no doubt about
that. Things are getting
much better in the
economy, with the
government proposing
more mega projects under
the Ninth Malaysia Plan.
Still, there is a limit
to what the government
can (and should) do. It
is now more a question
of whether the private
sector can (and is
willing to) come up with
the funding, either via
private finance
initiatives (PFIs) or
any other feasible
means.
I think the private
sector will be able to
fulfil "its end of the
deal", which explains
the rosy picture for
business in the
Malaysian economy. How
the equities market
responds is another ball
game. Bear in mind that
when the KLCI breached
the 1,000 psychological
barrier on Nov 3, it was
doing so after several
failed attempts over the
years. In technical
terms, the KLCI has
emerged strongly. This
bodes well for the
market as a whole, not
just the blue chips.
What's
next for KLCI?
Now that the
psychological barrier is
broken, the chances are
that the 1,000 point
will in due course
become the next support
level, which is a strong
technical analysis that
is worth noting.
For the longer term, I
had painted a rosy
picture of the KLCI in
my April 25, 2006,
analysis that appeared
in this publication
under the headline "In
Search of the Da Vinci
Code". I applied the Da
Vinci Code's so-called
"pentacle" geometry to
my own Bermuda triangle
analysis on the KLCI
megatrend ? KLCI monthly
chart with database
stretching from January
1970.
Those who missed that
article can take a look
at Chart 1. Observe that
I have marked Wave 3
with an arrow pointing
upwards to a question
mark. This trend points
towards the KLCI going
slightly over the 1,000
level by yearend. That
was my longer-term
benchmark for the KLCI.
I was confident about my
analysis and have stuck
with it ever since. I
believe "statistics
don't lie, but one can
lie with statistics".
So, how far can the KLCI
climb before yearend?
Chart 2 illustrates some
of my conclusions for
now. The KLCI's
short-term trend (by
Elliot Wave Analysis)
has just completed a
1-2-3-4-5 impulsive wave
sequence ? with Wave 5
right on the dot on Nov
7. This may mark an
important change in
trend downwards for a
brief A-B-C correction.
Or, if sentiments are
still strong (the KLCI
closed at 1019.93 points
last Thursday), then the
uptrend will continue
for quite a while to
around 1,035.32 by Nov
22, 2006. When that
happens, the waves may
require a recount. As it
is now, the bulls are
not eager to surrender
just yet. Hopefully, it
will not turn out to be
wishful thinking for
them.
Arifin Abdul Latif is
an economic chartist
based in Kuala Lumpur
--- end ---
--- Article Information ---
This article was emailed from http://www.theedgedaily.com:80/cms.
Article's URL: http://www.theedgedaily.com:80/cms/content.jsp?id=com.tms.cms.article.
Article_e54447c1-cb73c03a-16f70a40-b17736b7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
& Fax: 603-88703451 | 603-88887639
| 603-77254397 | h/p:
016-6094170 